A benign Easter weekend ahead, so let’s talk about hurricane season again

Summary: A very quiet Easter weekend is expected, with the most annoying weather element likely to be the breeze each day. Our next front arrives early Tuesday after a very warm Monday. It will bring a few showers but nothing too bad, followed up by quiet, pleasant weather later next week.

Is hurricane season really going to be that bad?

Over at The Eyewall, I’ve posted roughly once a month about hurricane season since January. I’m just basically tracking the status of El Niño and Atlantic water temperatures. We’re in the middle of a rather unprecedented global marine heat wave right now. The global oceans hit a record high temperature last month, and we’ve essentially set new daily records for the last full year, every day. It’s not just El Niño. That’s not hurting things, but it does not explain everything. We’ll cover this more at The Eyewall over time, but suffice to say, the Atlantic is one of many bodies of water that is blistering warm for March.

Ocean water temperatures are way warmer than normal in virtually the entire Atlantic Ocean, most of the Pacific Ocean, and almost all of the Indian Ocean.

In fact, Atlantic Ocean water temps are already at levels you would typically see in early June. In our posts at The Eyewall, I’ve basically said that you can expect seasonal hurricane forecasts to come surging out of the gate this year. They are going to be calling for active, if not hyperactive levels of activity. They’re going to be ugly. No two ways about it.

The first major entrant in this derby, AccuWeather came out on Wednesday, stating that they expect 20 to 25 named storms and 8 to 12 hurricanes. Because that’s not enough, they framed the season as likely being “explosive.” AccuWeather also highlighted the western Gulf, Florida, and Carolinas for above average activity. In my post yesterday at The Eyewall, I did note that they got their landfall points correct in 2023, but they also missed a couple areas. In 2022 they said the Gulf Coast between Texas and the Florida Panhandle was at greatest risk, as were the Carolinas. There were virtually no major impacts in those areas that season, with Hurricane Ian instead ramming the southwest coast of Florida. This is a long way of me saying that seasonal landfall forecasts have extremely mixed results, so take them all with a grain of salt.

The next major entrant should be Colorado State University, which unveils their outlook late next week at the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre.

Obviously, all this elicits a lot of concern from people. We’ve heard from people asking about how worried they should be this year. Others are already using gallows humor to cope already. I think it’s important to say a couple things here. First, as an individual or family, you shouldn’t use a seasonal hurricane forecast as the basis for your preparation. You should prepare the same way each year for hurricane season: Evacuation plans, contingency plans regarding work, pets, and childcare, emergency kits, flood insurance, H-E-B cocoa granola in my case. For you, me, and the lamp post, honestly, seasonal hurricane forecasts are noise, scientific exercises that really don’t tell us anything seriously actionable. Sure, many of us like to know what they say, but in terms of what they actually mean, it’s very little. For governments and businesses, it’s another matter. Second, an active season does not always mean an active season — for Texas. Last year was active. Texas had Tropical Storm Harold, which was probably more beneficial than destructive for the southern part of the state. But aside from that, it was quiet. 1983 was a virtually silent hurricane season overall, except for Hurricane Alicia here in Houston which would easily be a 10 to 20 billion dollar storm today. So, active or quiet, we should prep each year.

Basically, do what you want with seasonal hurricane forecasts. But look, the reality is we live in a hurricane prone location. We accept that fact by living here. So, do what you can to prepare early in case this is the year. And if it’s not, well good for us. But please try not to lose sleep over these forecasts. There’s going to be a lot of noise over the next 2 months in the run up to the season. You’re best served using the time to prepare in case it does end up being our year.

On to the weather.

Today through Easter Sunday

The good news is that travel looks great all weekend. There should be no serious issues. There will likely be some patchy fog on a couple mornings. Aside from that and a breeze each day, especially on Sunday, it looks good. I do think some folks may find the breeze to be a bit much at times. Onshore flow really kicks in this weekend, sending our high temperatures into upper-70s today and 80s tomorrow and Easter Sunday. Morning lows will be in the low-60s tomorrow and mid-60s Sunday.

Maximum wind gusts through Sunday won’t be especially high, but they’ll be persistently 20 to 30 mph today, tomorrow, and especially Sunday. (NOAA)

Rain chances should be close to zero all weekend.

Early next week

Our next cold front is targeting Tuesday. No joke, we’ll probably see one of our warmest days of the year so far on Monday, with highs well into the mid-80s. The number to beat is 89° that we reached on March 5th.

Monday’s forecast looks quite warm, with highs well into the 80s. (Pivotal Weather)

That will precede a frontal passage on Tuesday morning-ish. This front looks no worse right now than the one we had on Monday that brought some downpours and thunder for a short time. Rain totals look modest. That will usher in cooler, drier, nice weather for later next week. Expect lows to probably bottom out in the 50s for a couple pleasant mornings Wednesday and Thursday.

We’ll have the very latest on the forecast for April 8th’s eclipse on Monday. Not a whole lot has changed today, so let’s see what the weekend does, and then we can really dig in on this hard next week.

Expect another splendid weather day today, we also take a look at eclipse weather in Texas

Summary: After a chilly start Houston is going to see a very fine day of weather. Then we’ll see a warming trend through the weekend. Some clouds will mar festivities on Easter Sunday, but otherwise it should be a mild day. In this post we also take our first real look at an eclipse cloud cover forecast.

We won’t see many mornings this cold in Texas this season. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

After a chilly start to the day—for one of the last times this season much of Houston is seeing temperatures in the 40s—we’ll warm nicely with highs reaching the mid-70s. With plenty of dry air in place, this will be another one of those A+ days in Houston, so expect another fine evening. The only concern is air quality, with an Ozone Action Day in place. This is due, in part, to very light winds at the surface. With those winds turning more southerly, expect a bit warmer conditions tonight, with lows mostly in the 50s.

Friday

This will be another sunny, pleasant day. Temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the upper 70s. Southerly winds will also be more noticeable from the south, gusting perhaps to 20 mph. Lows on Friday night will drop down to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

The warming trend continues this weekend as the onshore flow remains in place. Highs on Saturday will be around 80 degrees, with partly to mostly sunny skies. As dewpoints will be around 60 degrees, the air will still feel reasonably dry. Lows on Saturday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Easter Sunday

Sunday won’t be warm enough to boil an egg, but highs should reach into the low 80s despite partly to mostly cloudy skies. Along with the clouds, winds on Sunday will be a bit gusty from the south. Still there are no concerns about rain or other activities that might preclude egg hunting or bunny hopping. Lows on Sunday night will be mild indeed, dropping only to about 70 degrees.

Sunday’s high temperature forecast. (Weather Bell)

Monday

The start of the next week will be quite warm, as highs push into the mid- to upper-80s. Could a few inland areas briefly touch 90 degrees? Yes, they could. But I think mostly cloudy skies will inhibit that kind of warming for most of the region. Still, this day will be a reminder that summer is not all that far off as we exit March.

Next week

A front arrives early next week, probably on Tuesday, to bring back more spring-like weather. This likely means highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for a few days with some drier air. So, nice. There’s not much of a chance of rain with this front it looks like, but that’s not a hard-boiled fact yet.

Eclipse weather

Alright, we’re just on the bleeding edge of having some sense of what to expect for April 8, 2024, when a total eclipse traverses the central part of the state. For those interested in the national outlook, Matt is providing regular updates at The Eyewall. His general conclusion that it’s too early to say anything remotely definitive. And I agree.

Bluer is better. This forecast shows the chances of seeing skies that are 50 percent clouded in or less on April 8 during the early afternoon. (Tomer Burg)

Here’s what I can say about Texas. After the front moves into Texas next week, we’re going to see several days of clear weather across the state, from roughly Tuesday through Friday. And after that? The majority of models cloud things up heading into next weekend. At that point we’re really beyond the stage of reliability predictability. For what it’s worth, which is not much, the global model ensembles are showing an average of about 50 to 60 percent cloud cover for the early afternoon of April 8. Generally, the further southwest one goes in the state, the better. And for the time being, at least, Texas looks to be in a little better situation than much of the rest of the country.

We should have something more sensible to say about all of this in Monday’s update.

After Tuesday’s stunner, some clouds make a brief return today

Summary: Tuesday was one of the nicest days of the year in Houston—I don’t think there was anything to complain about at all. We’re going to see some clouds return today, with a slight chance of showers. But then Thursday and Friday look to bring fantastic weather as well. Houston will warm up with some humidity returning this weekend.

Wednesday

We are going to briefly interrupt our mostly sunny weather with a cloudier day. Typically we see clouds return to Houston with the onshore flow, but in this case we’re still seeing a decidedly northerly flow across the region at the surface, with dry air continuing to move in. So what gives? The answer is that the winds in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere are more southwesterly, and in response to a large upper-level system we’ll see some atmospheric disturbances push through the area today.

Winds in the upper atmosphere, at about 30,000 feet, are from the southwest this morning. (Weather Bell)

This should produce mostly cloudy skies during the daytime hours, and help limit highs to about 70 degrees. It will also allow for a slight chance of rain, perhaps 20 percent, later today. For the most part these showers should be very light. With the dry air in place, and clearing skies, lows tonight should again drop down to near 50 degrees in Houston.

Thursday

The sunny weather is back, with highs in the mid- to upper-70s. As northerly winds shift to come from the south, lows on Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer.

Friday

Another sunny day, with highs in the upper-70s. Southerly winds will be a bit more pronounced, perhaps gusting up to 25 mph. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should bring mostly sunny skies, with highs of around 80 degrees. With the onshore flow in place we’ll see a bit more humidity, but dewpoints will still be far from oppressive. Lows on Saturday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Houston will gradually warm up through Monday or Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

Sunday

The latter half of the weekend is going to see less sunshine, and more humidity. Look for highs in the low-80s, and a warm night with the temperature falling only to around 70 degrees.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday look warm and muggy next week, with highs in the vicinity of the mid- to upper-80s. This will feel like “summer lite” in Houston, but won’t last as it looks like another front will arrive some time on Tuesday. Some moderate rainfall is possible with this front, but I don’t feel confident in the details. We should return to pleasant spring-like weather for the second half of next week.

Spring continues for Houston, and what was that bright light in the sky on Monday evening?

Summary: With clear skies, there was a strange sight in the sky over Houston on Monday shortly after sunset. We explain what that was. Beyond this briefly unidentified flying object, we’ve got a full week of spring-like weather before warming conditions this weekend and early next week. Rain chances are low throughout the period.

It’s a Bird… It’s a Plane… ?

A little before 8:30 pm CT on Monday evening a bright light appeared in the skies over Houston. It did not streak like a meteor, but rather moved overheard and then appeared to emit a puff of gas before dimming and then fading away. I did not see it myself, but received several questions about it in the immediate aftermath. So was this a UFO?

For a short time it was unidentified. However, I soon pieced together that it was related to a Falcon 9 launch that had taken place from Cape Canaveral, Florida, earlier in the evening. As you may know, the rocket’s first stage launches, and when its fuel is mostly spent, the second stage of the rocket separates. This first stage then makes a controlled descent to the ocean and then lands on a drone ship. So this was not the first stage over Texas, but rather the second stage.

After separation this upper stage had continued on to orbit and then released its payload of about two dozen Starlink internet satellites. This second stage, however, is not left to zip around orbit indefinitely. Rather it makes a ‘deorbit burn’ to return into Earth’s atmosphere and burn up. In this case, Texans—for it was visible as far away as Austin, as seen above—were seeing this deorbit burn. The remnants of the second stage then splashed down in the Atlantic Ocean several minutes later. This has happened before over Texas, but typically it occurs further south and west of Houston and is not visible here.

Tuesday

The clear skies that allowed Houston to see the Falcon 9 rocket’s upper stage on Monday night will carry over into today. We’ll see mostly sunny skies and another clear night. Highs today will reach the low 70s, with modest northerly winds of about 10 mph. Temperatures tonight should be a touch cooler than Monday night, dropping down to nearly 50 degrees.

Tuesday will probably be the coolest night of the week for most of Houston. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

This day will be a bit more interesting, weather-wise. An upper-level disturbance will provide a bit of lift in the atmosphere, and this will allow for the formation of some clouds during the daytime hours. There is even the slight chance, perhaps 10 percent, of a light shower during the late afternoon or early evening. Highs, otherwise, will be in the low 70s. Skies should clear out again overnight, again allowing lows to drop to nearly 50 degrees overnight.

Thursday

A sunny and pleasant day, with highs in the mid-70s. Winds will be light and the air dry, but there will be a subtle shift as winds turn to come from the south. Lows on Thursday night will be warmer, likely in the upper 50s in Houston.

Friday

Another day with mostly sunny skies, probably. Highs will be a bit warmer, in the upper 70s, and a touch more humidity in the air with the modest southerly flow. Winds likely will be a bit more pronounced, at 15 mph with higher gusts.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be warmer, with highs around 80 degrees on Saturday, and the low 80s on Sunday. We’ll also see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with Saturday more likely to have sunshine than Sunday. Also, by Sunday, the air will be fairly humid with dewpoints in the 60s. Still, all of this is relative. Compared to July, this weekend will be quite mild. Both days should see a fairly pronounced southerly wind.

Monday’s highs may feel like we’re on the precipice of summer in Houston. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Monday and possibly Tuesday look rather warm, in the upper 80s, before a front arrives to cool us down some. At this point overall rain chances with the front look fairly low. After the front we should see some days in the 70s and nights in the 50s, maybe.

Eclipse weather

Over at The Eyewall, Matt has a very preliminary look at the cloud cover forecast for the solar eclipse on April 8, across the United States. Short answer: It’s complicated. And we don’t know much yet.